Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Another trend line to exceed

After my post last night I wanted to give another perspective to what many see as a source of concern regarding this present rally we are experiencing in the market.  The concern is that yields on the long end of the curve (10 years+) are pricing in continued economic weakness or even recession.  The argument here is that even though the FED is active in buying up longer duration debt the bond market is just too big for them to keep these rates as low as they have been by their intervention.  Subsequently, stocks are rallying on unsubstantiated optimisim about economic prospects.  I personally believe that between their active purchases and their "jawboning" the FED can keep these rates low at least temporarily.  I guess we shall see who's right but here's another chart going back to mid 2006 of the S&P 500 with a blue resistance line that, we are getting close to.  If we can penetrate this resistance level it will give more credence to my thesis.

Click on the chart for a larger view: