Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Want to see an ugly chart?

This index has been getting a lot of "press" on CNBC lately but for those of you who receive my commentary you know I've been following this index closely for the past month.  This is a daily chart of the Baltic Dry Index going back to February 2008. The index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes. (click the chart for an enlarged view) 

Notice the waterfall decline in 2008 which coincided with the Great Financial Crisis. I put Fibonacci lines on the chart and since it descended to its all time low in December 2008 it has never exceeded 4500 and it has not penetrated the 61.2% retracement level since December 2010. It's been sinking for the past 25 days!  Many have offered excuses for it's precipitous decline from flooding in Australia that closed down the coal mining industry to oversupply of new ships. But if we don't start to see a recovery soon I suspect the index is telling us something more sinister is going on in the global economy. I'll be posting the chart from time to time to keep everyone apprised of its progress or lack thereof.