Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Commodities making their move?

 We had significant moves in industrial commodities, oil and gold today.  But we're going to need solid follow thru if we're going to say they're confirming the stock rally.

Here's a weekly chart of West Texas Crude that has pierced 38.2% Fibonacci resistance and is at the highest level since May:


We would want to see oil exceed the 115 level (long red candlestick on the left side of the chart).  Oil prices are a sign of a strengthening economy but in the current environment we are in it's a "double edged" blade in that higher oil prices will cut off economic growth.

Here's DBB which is an ETF that tracks copper, aluminum and zinc:


As you can see it had an impressive move today but in the wider scheme of things I can't get excited about this price actrion until we see follow thru above the 50% Fibonacce retracement level.

And here's Gold:



We were up over $34.00 today and the price action was reminiscent of the kind of moves we saw in 2011.  Gold is sitting right at resistance so we shall see very soon whether there's momentum behind this move.

The bottom line, we need commodities to confirm the strength we're seeing in the equity markets.  Without this confirmation we must remain cautious about equity strength.  I believe commodities will eventually confirm ...