Thursday, February 2, 2012

Oil in the doldrums

For all the hoopla we've been hearing for the past few years that oil demand is outstripping supply and that we will be seeing $150.00/barrel oil this year the weekly chart below of West Texas Intermediate Crude going back to 2007 seems to be telling a different story.  It has failed to penetrate 38.2% Fibonacci resistance since early May 2011:



Many attribute this price action to a weakening global economy, especially in Europe.  But we've had supply threats from Libya early in 2011 (which was responsible for the price spike on the chart in March and April) and recently with Iranian sabre rattling.  Normally, such threats to supply are good for a $5.00 - $10.00 pop in the price of "black gold". 

Let me present a different thesis.  Maybe demand is not outstripping supply but supply is overwhelming demand.  I'll have more on this in future posts ...