Monday, February 6, 2012

Treasuries & Commodities

If you've been reading my blog then you know I've been waiting for Treasuries and commodities to confirm my thesis that the economy is getting better and stocks are going to continue their rally. 

While stocks close in on their July 2011 highs we're still not seeing the kind of bullish price action in commodities that would ratify equity strength.  Here's an updated daily chart of the Goldman Sachs Industrial commodity Index:


And here's West Texas Crude:



You can see that both are trapped between Fibonacci retracement lines and are stalled there. 

Here's a daily chart of TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) which is a proxy for the long end of the yield curve:


Treasuries are also meandering within a consolidation triangle which is getting narrower by the day. 

Whatever happens, it's going to happen soon.  Both asset classes are building pressure within the charts and there will be an explosive break out, but in which direction?  I'm betting it'll be commodities up and Treasuries down.  But for now, my thesis is still unproven ...