Monday, March 19, 2012

Russell 2000 & more on Gold

In my commentary this weekend I identified that small caps were not participating in this rally and I posted a weekly chart of the Russell 2000 to substantiate my thesis.  Well, here's the same chart but updated to include today's close:

(click on chart for larger image)

We finally broke out of a seven week trading range and have breached long term resistance (red arrow).  Now, we can't say this is a confirmed break out until we see where the index is at the end of the week.  But the fact that long term resistance has been finally violated and I see nothing that may come up this week that would roil these markets makes me optimistic that the Russell will confirm more upside to this rally.

I also addressed my concerns regarding Gold this weekend but did identify an inverse head and shoulders formation on the daily chart.  There's another inverse head and shoulders formation brewing on the weekly SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) which is a proxy for the spot price of gold bullion:



Here we have another inverse head and shoulders formation and if the formation is consummated by a fully formed right shoulder we're projecting a price of approximately 205 to 210.  This is equivalent to a Gold spot price of $2,050.00 to $2,100.00!