Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Stocks up on wishful thinking & Gold miners

I stole the first part of my title above from a headline off of Barron's website this evening but it is very appropriate.

We got the "pop" I was predicting but not entirely for the reasons I thought.  The ECB did not lower interest rates.  The market literally rallied on wishful thinking.  There were rumors floating around trading desks in New York that the EU was going to bail out the Spanish banks (even though the Germans already said no to this and the EU treaty will not allow this).  There were rumors that the Chinese government was about to activate another QE program even though people on the ground over there say this will not be happening (see my Macro Analysis post from this past Sunday). 

In any case, if you were positioned to take advantage of this pop you did well today.  And I wouldn't step in front of this freight train and try to short the market (at least not yet; maybe next week).  Look for resistance at about 1325 on the S&P 500.  If we punch thru that then 1335 - 1340 should be the top for this move.

I've been watching the Gold Miners and here's a weekly of GDXJ (the Market Vectors Junior Gold Mining Index):

(click on chart for larger image)

As I stated in a few of my last blog posts, the miners turned up before Gold in this present rally which is something we have not seen in years.  The white arrow points to this week's price action and you can see that GDXJ has penetrated a steep resistance line (white dashed) but still has to clear the first Fibonacci resistance level at 22.44. 

Notice the volume at the bottom of the chart.  I've pointed out the surge in volume three weeks ago when GDXJ bottomed.  This is known as "capitulation" or "climax" selling and we haven't seen that type of volume in this index for years.

All in all, the chart is quite constructive and it carries more weight since its a weekly chart.

Is this the beginning of the long awaited bull market in the miners that the "gold bugs" have been waiting for since 1980?  I'll reserve judgement for now (Gold is currently trading down $10.00 in the after market tonight) but I like this price action and the technicals.