Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Update on Gold

As global deflationary forces gather momentum Gold and the other precious metals have been taking a bath!  There's some talk among the "bugs" and other analysts that we may be nearing a major bottom in the "yellow metal". 

The purpose of this short post is not to take issue with those opinions but simply to state that nothing has happened to changed the economic fundamentals and conditions that have negatively impacted Gold's price in the past month .  Will investor sentiment suddenly change and rally to Gold as a "fear" hedge?  Maybe, but so far there's no indication of that happening.

Here's a weekly chart of the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD):

(click on chart for larger image)

I circled this week's price action.  We're at the intersection of a resistance/support line that extends to the late August 2011 highs and also the 100% Fibonacci retracement level for the same period.  Putting the fundamentals aside, if we're nearing a major bottom in Gold I'll be looking for a bounce and a stabilization of the decline at this intersection.  However, my gut tells me we're in for more downside. 

We shall see ...